EDITORIALS IN 2021
Fed Actions Set Up Double Bottom Scenarios in Several Miner ETF's
December 17th, 2021
Since Gold Futures peaked at an all-time high of $2089 in August of 2020, the safe-haven metal has endured an extended and healthy correction of outsized gains. After bullion had doubled in price to $2089 per ounce last August, from its low of $1045 in late 2015, this necessary correction has been taking place for the past...
Renewed Gold Weakness has Central Banks and Miners Buying
December 3rd, 2021
The gold price is gaining bearish momentum as recently re-appointed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell turned from a fiscal dove, to a hawk during testimony in Congress this week. And with concerns easing on Thursday about the risk posed by the newly discovered Omicron variant to the global economic...
Junior Gold Stock Trains are Leaving the Station
November 19th, 2021
Last week was pivotal for the precious metal’s complex, with the gold price breaking through key resistance at $1840. Inside of a run that saw the safe-haven metal move higher on seven consecutive trading sessions, it was last Wednesday’s price action that finally broke this level, closing the session on a strong...
Gold Breaking Out Amid Loss of Investor Confidence in the Fed
November 12th, 2021
The news headlines this week, along with the rising gold price, is implying investors across the globe have finally accepted that inflation will continue to run hot. Despite the best efforts by central banks to convince them that surging prices of most everything is transitory, December Gold futures are headed for their biggest weekly gain in...
More M&A and Two Junior Take-Over Candidates to Consider
October 29th, 2021
With the mining complex attempting to create a sustainable bottom since the beginning of Q4, the M&A space also began to perk up recently. Once the high-profile Agnico-Eagle/Kirkland Lake Gold "merger of equals" deal was announced at the tail-end of Q3, I suggested the possibility of these issues being...
Gold Stock Mean-Reversion in Progress
October 22nd, 2021
Despite long-term interest rates continuing to move upwards, the precious metal’s sector has been steadily finding buyers since late September. Previously, rising bond yields acted as a factor for selling both gold and silver, paying no dividends or coupons. I believe the main reason for the recent dis-connect...
Stagflationary Concerns Send the Gold Price to Key $1800 Level
October 15th, 2021
In this column last week, I mentioned the importance of a sharp $30 intraday reversal which took place in the gold price on the last “book squaring” trading session of Q3. Technically, this sudden move back above $1750 held the gold price inside the bullish symmetrical consolidation triangle that has...
Bombed Out Gold Stocks Showing Relative Strength to the Metal
October 8th, 2021
In August 2020, the price of gold rose to new records, heading above $2000 per ounce. After zooming to an all-time high and becoming technically extreme overbought, the gold price has been consolidating last years outsized gains for the past 14 months while gold stocks were...
M&A Heats Up in a Deeply Oversold Mining Sector
October 1st, 2021
In a sector where investor confidence is extremely low, mining companies re-kindled efforts to explore alliances and partnerships to bring promising projects online and share the risk between parties during the recently concluded in-person Colorado mining conferences...
Gold Stocks Have Become the Ultimate Contrarian Play
September 24th, 2021
The week began with most everything being sold, with the U.S. dollar and gold receiving safe-haven bids heading into another highly anticipated FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The selling started in China on concerns over its property market and spread to Europe, then the U.S...
In-Person Conference Season Returns as Gold Builds an $1800 Floor
September 3rd, 2021
Investors now seem convinced that the Fed will wait for a longer period before deciding to roll back its massive pandemic-era stimulus program. These speculations were further fueled by Wednesday's disappointing ADP report, along with the significant miss in the...
The Risk Has Now Shifted to the Upside in Gold Stocks
August 27th, 2021
Earlier this morning in a speech to the Jackson Hole economic symposium, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the U.S. central bank will remain patient and repeated that he wants to avoid chasing "transitory" inflation that would potentially discourage job growth in the...
The Junior Bag Holder Nightmare Is a Contrarians Dream
August 13th, 2021
What a difference a year makes! At this time last year, the gold price was comfortably trading at all-time highs above $2000 per ounce, and even serial gold detractor Warren Buffet had taken a position in the barbarous relic. But once the news of...
Junior Capitulation Begins While Deal Flow Remains Strong
August 6th, 2021
With the gold price enduring above key support at $1800 per ounce for the past two weeks, resource stock speculators began to capitulate on select juniors late last Friday. Although Comex Gold Futures closed well above $1800 at 1:30pm PST, relative junior gold stock weakness...
Gold Summer Doldrums Return After Two-Year Hiatus
July 23rd, 2021
Two weeks ago in this space, I mentioned the $1850 level in gold had cleared the upside on a monthly closing basis and successfully back tested its breakout. The $1850 level at that time coincided with the upper boundary of the downtrend channel from its all-time high at $2089.
Miners Flag Recent Gains as Gold Heads For a Strong Monthly Close
June 18th, 2021
As I type this missive, gold futures are attempting to pierce the $1900 level after the U.S. annual core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (PCE) came in above expectations in April, advancing 3.1% versus the expected 1.4%.
It's The Downtrend In Gold That Was Transitory
June 11th, 2021
While the head of the Federal Reserve Bank and its governors continue to insist recent skyrocketing inflation in everything from lumber to hamburger being "transitory", gold has become the safe-haven of choice during a volatile week in the marketplace.
The Junior Gold Stock Fire Sale May Be Ending Soon
May 21st, 2021
Despite the highest inflation figures since 2008, along with a stock market sell off, gold has been consolidating its outsized gains from last week. Buy stops were triggered once the gold price broke out to the upside above the wall of technical resistance at $1800 per ounce and quickly moved towards the next resistance zone at $1850 into Monday's Comex session.
Gold Moves Above Key Resistance at the $1800 Level
May 7th, 2021
Gold has been trending higher since a daily double bottom at $1675 was reached at the end of March, trading in the upper range of a 9-month bullish descending channel. The $1,800 level has proven to be formidable resistance towards the middle...
Miners Leading as Gold Prepares to Tackle the Key $1800 Level
April 30th, 2021
Amid rampant bullishness with calls of $10,000 per ounce making headlines last year, gold futures made an all-time high at nearly $2,100 in August of 2020. The peak reached at $2089 marked a double from gold's December, 2015 low of $1,045, while bullishness...
Rising Inflation and Geopolitical Concerns Boost Gold
April 23rd, 2021
Since posting an all-time high last August at $2089 per ounce, gold has seen persistently strong headwinds as the dollar and bond yields often surged on the argument that the U.S. economic recovery from the pandemic could exceed expectations. Despite the...
After an abysmal Q1, gold bounces into Q2
April 16th, 2021
The combination of the miners underperforming the gold price and a soaring U.S. equity market to begin 2021, gave miner investors little reason to hold gold stock positions heading into quarter-end last week. With investors being more focused on what seems to be forever rising equity markets and cryptocurrencies, they wanted...
Miner relative weakness hinting of gold selloff into quarter-end
April 9th, 2021
After a parabolic move higher in less than 5 months from a low of $1450 seen last March, the gold price remains mired in an 8-month correction. The lengthy consolidation of out-sized gains after hitting an all-time high of $2089 has been unnerving for gold investors, with patience beginning to wear thin...
Gold hanging tough as bond vigilantes test the Fed's resolve
March 26th, 2021
As expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues remained dovish at the end of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, despite upgrading their U.S. economic outlook and mounting inflation worries in financial markets. Powell repeated a pledge to hold interest rates near zero until 2023 in an effort to keep the economic recovery on track, even if inflation breaches its 2% target this year...
Gold attempting to bottom as Biden fuels the helicopters
March 19th, 2021
Early Thursday morning, the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled faster money-printing to keep a lid on euro zone borrowing costs. Concerned that a rise in bond yields could derail a recovery across the 19 countries that share the euro, the ECB said it expects its 1.85 trillion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) purchases to ramp up at a "significantly higher" pace ...
Oversold miner ETF's testing 7-year breakout levels
March 10th, 2021
Gold futures on the Comex traded below $1,700 on Thursday, after remarks on the U.S. economy by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent bond yields and the U.S. dollar soaring. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rallied 4% and recaptured 1.50% on Powell's comments, while...
Cashed up junior gold stock fire sale in progress
March 5th, 2021
The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield spiking above long-term resistance at 1.50% on Thursday for the first time in a year, forced gold prices back down to recent lows at $1,765. U.S. bond yields have tripled since August of 2020, which has been the main culprit in pressuring the gold price to correct 16% from its all-time high...
Subtle hints the miners are carving out a sustainable bottom
February 26th, 2021
Unprecedented global stimulus measures, negative real rates, and a weakening dollar pushed gold futures to a record high of $2,089 per ounce six months ago. But after printing a quarterly basis close above $1800 for the first time in its history in Q2/2020, the safe-haven metal blew past the former all-time high of $1920 seen back in 2011...
After silver short squeeze fails, a gold stop run succeeds
February 12th, 2021
Once the now-famous retail Reddit Army was able to push the silver price to strong resistance at $30 on Sunday evening, the CME Group raised margins on Comex silver futures by 18% after the metal surged to an eight-year high this Monday. ..
Whipsaw Price Action Continues in the Miners
February 5th, 2021
Gold Bugs were feeling very confident coming into the new year, as the GDX appeared ready to break out of its then 5-month consolidation pattern during the first week of trade in 2021. But after a tantalizing $50 move above gold’s down-trend line, the global miner ETF posted a bearish daily island reversal pattern and...
Area Play: M&A on the Abitibi Greenstone Belt in Quebec
January 29th, 2021
In the early 20th century, the discovery of the Cadillac-Larder Lake Fault Zone (CLLFZ) ushered in the Abitibi-Tamiscamingue Gold Rush and the geological anomaly continues to have a major impact on Quebec’s mining history. The massive CLLFZ is a regional-scale strike fault and/or shear zone and is one of the most important structural controls on the gold mineralization...
The telling relative miner weakness during a gold bear flag
January 22nd, 2021
Although frustrating to gold investors, the precious metals sector selloff to begin 2021 is not all that surprising. This secular gold bull that began after the turn of the century has had a tendency to make false moves in the opposite direction to buck off as many riders as possible before beginning its next up-leg...
The gold price takes a $125 round trip into 2021
January 15th, 2021
After posting its best annual performance in a decade during a turbulent 2020, gold rang in the new year with a $125 roller coaster ride this week. The price of bullion rallied significantly to kick off the year on Monday, rising over $50 higher above its down trend line as a weak U.S. dollar slipped to 2018 lows...
Silver set to outpace gold in 2021
January 8th, 2021
Although the gold price hit all-time highs this past summer, silver still has plenty of catching up to do. After temporarily trading at just $12 per ounce during the March panic in the marketplace, silver may look pricey now. But it has far more upside ahead than gold, as bullion likely struck a bottom in late November and is set to continue its rally after completing its recent 15% correction of outsized gains.