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August 18th, 2023

Gold Futures Move Towards $1900 Support into Jackson Hole

After continued U.S. economic strength announced this week, the likelihood of another Fed rate hike by November moving closer to 50% has taken Gold Futures closer to key technical support at $1900. Traders assign a 45% chance of a November rate hike, after an expected pause in September. One week...


Gold Futures Move Towards Key $1900 Support into Jackson Hole

August 18th, 2023

After continued U.S. economic strength announced this week, the likelihood of another Fed rate hike by November moving closer to 50% has taken Gold Futures closer to key technical support at $1900. Traders assign a 45% chance of a November rate hike, after an expected pause in September. One week ago, those odds of a November hike were less than 30%...

Gold Futures Remain in Uptrend with an Expected Fed Pause

August 11th, 2023

The gold market did not see much of a reaction after CPI inflation cooled slightly more than expected on Thursday, followed by a mildly hotter-than-expected PPI inflation report this morning. U.S. CPI annual inflation rose 3.2%, up from 3% in June, while PPI inflation for July came in at up 0.3% from June. Thursday’s July CPI report was slightly tamer than expected, which solidified notions the...

Gold Positioning for a Breakout After Bottoming in June

July 14th, 2023

With most investors having given up on the ancient metal of Kings during summer doldrums, the gold bull is positioning for an historic breakout with very few riders left on board. This is par for gold’s course, as historically, the safe-haven metal has a habit of ditching as many investors as possible before its next major up-leg begins. For over three years now Gold Futures have traded in a range between...

Hawkish Central Banks Move Gold Futures Down Towards $1900

June 23rd, 2023

Coming into this U.S. holiday shortened week, the gold price had been trading in a tight $40 range for the previous two weeks, waiting for a proper catalyst to decide its next move. The rate-hike pause by the Fed last Wednesday failed to move Gold Futures above the key $2000 level, despite a sharply sinking U.S. dollar. ust one week after the Federal Reserve opted to skip a rate hike with inflation still...

Gold Moves Through Whipsaw City Heading into Fed Week

June 9th, 2023

With Gold Futures remaining in a five-week downtrend from a peak near all-time highs reached in early May, the safe-haven metal has been chopping inside of a tight range between $1985 and $1950 since Monday. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve taking a break in its aggressive interest-rate campaign during the FOMC meeting next week is becoming further priced into the...

Debt Can Kick Moves Gold Towards the Key $2000 Level

June 2nd, 2023

After a healthy 7% gold price correction of a $465 move higher since the November low at $1620, bullion is already knocking on the $2000 door again. The sharp move higher in the safe-haven metal this week has been fueled by a debt ceiling deal, along with several Fed governors hinting of a rate hike pause during the upcoming FOMC policy meeting later this month putting pressure on the U.S. dollar...

More Gold Consolidation Required in Time and Price

May 12th, 2023

After the doubling of the gold price from a low of $1045 in late 2015, to a peak at $2089 by mid-2020, the safe-haven metal had reached a technically extreme overbought situation. While bullish sentiment in bullion also peaked at that time, a sideways consolidation process inside of a $450 price range has been taking place in Gold Futures for nearly three years...

Robust U.S. Jobs Report Delays Gold Breakout

May 5th, 2023

Heading into the highly anticipated FOMC meeting results on Wednesday, the gold price had been trading in a tight $40 range around the key $2000 level for the past few weeks. But regional banking concerns became the focal point for investors to begin an expectedly volatile week, which also included European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy results on Thursday, followed by...

Gold Trading in a Tight Range Heading into Fed Week

April 28th, 2023

With Gold Futures consolidating recent gains, renewed banking fears are keeping the safe-haven metal in a tight range around the key $2000 level as month-end book squaring takes place into Fed week. We learned this week that the recent collapse of several prominent banks in the U.S. and Europe has seen depositors withdraw a total of $508 billion dollars from banks around the world...

Gold Consolidating Recent Gains Around the Key $2000 Level

April 21st, 2023

We are just over a quarter into 2023 and it has already been a very good year for the precious metals complex. But this is likely just the beginning of the sector's best year since the Global Financial Crisis put in a major gold bottom in 2008 when the Fed was forced to recapitalize the U.S. banking system. After an explosive move in Gold Futures came within $25 of all-time highs last week, an...

Gold Futures Nearing a Technical Breakout Above $2100

April 14th, 2023

After posting an all-time high on both a monthly and quarterly basis at the end of March, Gold Futures are nearing blue sky territory above the all-time high of $2089 made in August 2020. The most actively traded Gold Futures contract closed at $2055 on Thursday, looking to make a weekly all-time high close later today. Bullion is up about 12% year to date, whereas the benchmark S&P 500 index has,,,

Gold Futures Test Key $2000 Resistance into the End of Q1

March 31st, 2023

As the final day of a volatile first quarter ends later this afternoon, Gold Futures are looking to close above 12-year resistance at $2000 per ounce on a monthly/quarterly basis for the first time in history. Although bullion priced in U.S. dollars has visited the $2000-$2100 region on two previous occasions over the past 32-months of grinding sideways action, gold bulls were denied...

Gold Nears Breakout after the Fed Signals an End to Rate Hikes

March 24th, 2023

After witnessing the 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in U.S. history happening back to back, depositors withdrew a total $42 billion from U.S. banks last Friday. In contrast, the precious metals market recorded a net inflow totaling $5.9 billion, which was the second largest weekly inflow into the safe-haven sector since the 2008 global financial crisis...

Banking Crisis Keeping Gold Above $1900 into Fed Week

March 17th, 2023

After hearing rumors of a "soft landing" from the Federal Reserve for the past year, an old-fashioned bank run has raised the odds considerably of the outcome from its aggressive rate-hike program ushering in a much harder one. Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned us that the road ahead will be "bumpy" during his testimony before Congress last Tuesday, a bank contagion beginning...

The Gold Sector Attempts to Reverse the PDAC Curse

March 10th, 2023

Earlier this week, I attended the annual Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference in Toronto. It is the premier destination for mining companies to mingle with suppliers, customers, potential investors, consultants, and analysts.Not only is this a must-attend event for professional mining investors such as myself, PDAC can also be a very good gauge of...

Gold Holds Key $1800 Support as Recession Fears Mount

March 3rd, 2023

Gold Futures opened 2023 at $1825, then reached a year-to-date high of $1975 on February 2 after the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year. But continued signs of inflation, a strong U.S. dollar, and rising bond yields on the back of a surprising release of a very strong U.S. jobs report for January all helped to push the gold price towards key support at $1800 by the end of the following month...

Miner Merger Mondays Return Heading into Conference Season

February 17th, 2023

As expected in this space last week, the announcement of gold mining behemoth Newmont Gold’s (NEM) attempt to acquire Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCMGY), the 6th largest bullion miner, has spurned more miner M&A for a second consecutive Monday. As the precious metals equity sector continues to consolidate an over 50% upside move from September into the first week of this year...

More Mega-Miner M&A During a Healthy Gold Correction

February 10th, 2023

With Gold Futures in the process of consolidating a 3-month $355 move higher that began with a $50 downside reversal on February 2nd, the world's largest gold miner announced its intention to become even bigger on Sunday evening. U.S. based Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) made an almost $17 billion offer to acquire Australia's Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCMGY), aiming to distance itself further...

Central Bank Rate Hikes Whipsaw Gold Traders

February 3rd, 2023

The gold price began the week with a technically bullish monthly close near $1950 on Tuesday. The safe-haven metal rose $120 in January on the back of strong central bank buying data from the World Gold Council (WGC). Global central banks purchased 1,136 tons of gold in 2022, driving demand for bullion to the highest mark since 2011...

Gold Consolidating Gains Above $1900 into Fed Week

January 27th, 2023

The gold price is up over $100 in the first month of 2023, its best start to the year since 2012. After a false breakout to the downside during the final quarter of 2022, gold has zoomed $332 an ounce from its November low at $1618. This now 20% rally over the past three months has technically placed the safe-haven metal in a bull market, suggesting further gains ahead...

Junior Gold Stocks are Poised to Outperform in 2023

January 20th, 2023

With the rally in gold prices over the past two months having defied analyst expectations for continued weakness, precious metals remain under-owned and out of favor despite their strong relative and absolute performance into 2023.Since a monthly triple-bottom took place in November, I related in this space last week that the gold price continuing its climb has been mostly due to...

Global Swapping of Dollars for Gold has $2000 per oz in View

January 13th, 2023

On Thursday, Gold Futures breached $1900 per ounce for the first time in eight months after growth in U.S. consumer prices and inflation slowed as forecast in December, aiding the Federal Reserve’s goal of continuing with smaller rate hikes in 2023.The benchmark COMEX Gold Futures contract has risen over 4% since the start of the year, extending its now 18% rise from...

Gold Continues to Climb a Wall of Worry into 2023

January 6th, 2023

After two years of consolidating huge gains made during the early stages of the pandemic in 2020, the gold price comes into the new year climbing another wall of worry. Gold's time-tested role as a safe-haven returned in late Q4 2022 and has been carried over to January with investors seeking shelter from what has been forecast to be another challenging year...

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