EDITORIALS IN 2018
Gold and the Miners Join the U.S. Dollar as a Safe Haven
December 21, 2018
The underwhelming Non-Farms Payroll (NFP) release last Friday, coupled with a weakening stock market, has the street expecting the Fed will turn cautious next week and slow the pace of rate hikes in 2019. Although the November jobs report was strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates again.
Is Gold Forming a Bottom, or a Bear Flag?
December 14, 2018
You would be hard pressed to find a shell-shocked gold stock investor who would like nothing more than the answer to this question. I will present a strong argument for both outcomes below, so that you, dear reader, can decide for yourself which way the gold complex may imminently break.
Lagging Silver May Be Telegraphing More Gold Weakness Ahead
November 30, 2018
The U.S. Midterm Election ending without any surprises, and had stock prices soaring higher on Wednesday, while gold was essentially unchanged. With equities being bid higher, gold is losing an important safety-related support with the return of “risk-on” among equity investors.
Miners Continue to Consolidate During Q3 Earnings
November 9, 2018
Last week, two of Canada’s largest gold miners reported losses for the third quarter, continuing a disappointing run that has seen the industry struggle to attract investors. Barrick Gold (ABX) reported a $412m net loss due to a $405m impairment on its Lagunas Norte project in Peru, while Goldcorp (GG) swung to a $101m loss from a net profit of $111m a year earlier.
Gold Remains Firm Despite Stronger U.S. Dollar
November 2, 2018
When gold’s latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report was released last Friday, we learned speculators boosted their net-short position in bullion futures and options to the largest level since at least 2006 in the week ended Oct. 9th. During the previous session on October 11th, gold posted the biggest...
Short Squeeze in the Gold Sector
October 19. 2018
The imminent short squeeze gold bulls had been waiting for since late July, was triggered yesterday after U.S. equities were down over three percent the previous session. Just after the London Metals Exchange (LME) opened yesterday morning, gold spec shorts slowly began to cover as Dow Futures were showing more weakness before the opening bell.
Another Miner Merger and More Gold Sector Consolidation
October 12, 2018
On September 30th, we had an announcement of a second miner merger proposal after the recently concluded Denver Gold Forum. North and Central American focused silver miner/developer Americas Silver (USAS) announced that it has agreed to acquire Nevada-focused gold developer Pershing Gold (PGLC)...
Merger Monday Shine Tarnished by FOMC Speech
October 5, 2018
On Sunday evening, Global miners Barrick Gold (ABX) and Randgold Resources (GOLD) announced they have agreed to merge in an all share, no premium transaction which will solidify Barrick as the world’s largest gold company by production.
Gold Mining Stocks: Top 3 Junior Take-Over Candidates
September 28, 2018
Although 2018 has been a rough year for junior resource equity speculators, there has been some positive M&A activity in the complex over the past few months. Most notably, we have seen a number of larger acquisitions including South32's US$1.3B deal for Arizona Mining, Orion's C$537M bid for Dalradian Resources...
Miner Selling Continues Despite Recent Gold Strength
September 14, 2018
Since Vanguard announced a major restructuring of its Vanguard Precious Metal and Mining Fund (VGPMX) on July 27th, the sell-off in the GDX has increased much more than the selling in gold. The fund’s investment strategy is shifting from investing 80% in mining companies and 20% directly in precious metals...
Critical Monthly Closing Levels to Watch in the Gold Complex
September 7, 2018
Since late July, there has been a growing chorus of gold sector analysts calling for an imminent upside explosion in the miners based generally on the highly publicized and extreme managed money short position in gold futures. Although I happen to agree this overly large speculator short position is a time bomb which can eventually propel...
Capitulation Begins in the Mining Complex
August 24, 2018
The “summer doldrums” have been particularly cruel to gold bulls this year with safe haven capital continuing to rush into the U.S. dollar, as opposed to the traditional safe haven of gold. There has also been speculation that Turkey may be having to sell gold recently due to their current severe financial crisis...
Trump is in Position to Benefit Gold
July 31, 2018
On July 19th, while gold was selling down toward the $1200 region, President Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve’s current policy to continue raising interest rates. Gold immediately rose $10, while the over-bought U.S. dollar made an intra-day reversal from its highest point reached since a strong move higher began in mid-April.
Gold Bulls Whipsawed
July 27, 2018
In Wednesday’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting speech, the Federal Reserve took a slightly more hawkish policy tone in signaling two more rate hikes by year-end. However, the gold complex chose to focus on the Fed’s rather tepid view of inflation as Fed Chair Jerome Powell pledged to keep rates low enough to bolster the...
Gold Breaks Down as Miners Increase Relative Strength
July 20, 2018
Since gold bottomed at the $1050 region in late 2015 many analysts, myself included, have been anticipating a breakout above strong resistance at the $1375 level. However, this past April the yellow metal failed for the third time at this area and has now broken down with a monthly basis close below critical support at $1260 on June
Yukon Mining Alliance Site Visit Review
July 6, 2018
I have just returned from the annual Yukon Mining Alliance (YMA) Investment & Media Tour with a deeper understanding of the geologic history in the westernmost of Canada's three federal territories. Each year the YMA invites a select group of both industry professionals and resource investors on a 6-day whirlwind tour of numerous mine site camps throughout the region.
Amidst the Gold Gloom M&A is Heating Up Again
June 29, 2018
Since last Sunday afternoon, while investors continue to sell most of their junior resource stock holdings in panic fashion, there have been three high-profile merger/acquisitions announced in the complex. What is most encouraging is the fact that two of these deals were large premium, all-cash offers for juniors who have been...
Are You A Contrarian, Or A Victim?
June 15, 2018
These are the words of Rick Rule, who is one of the most successful resource stock speculators of our time. Mr. Rule’s famous quote is being put to the test while we approach yet another gold sensitive Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week.
Gold Remains Above $1280 as the USD Reaches Target High
June 8, 2018
In this column a few weeks ago, I mentioned gold may continue to be under pressure until we see the rising U.S. dollar reach a technical target of 95 on the cash-settled index and I had assumed at the time, gold would be below $1280 when it was reached.
Gold Bounces but Miners are Underwhelmed
June 1, 2018
The Dovish Fed minutes on Wednesday, coupled with President Donald Trump cancelling his much-anticipated historic meeting with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un yesterday, has sent gold back above the $1300 level. However, with gold becoming over-sold when hitting support near $1280 earlier this week, the inevitable bounce...
Gold Unable to Break Out, So It Breaks Down
May 25, 2018
Just two hours before the Cambridge House International Mining Investment Conference began in Vancouver on Tuesday, the gold price broke critical support at $1300. After trying repeatedly for three months, the safe-haven currency had been unable to break out above multi-year resistance at $1375.
Rising Crude Oil Keeps Gold Above Critical Support
May 18, 2018
Despite the relentless rise of the U.S. dollar during the past four weeks, the gold price has managed to hold critical support at the $1300 level due mostly to crude oil continuing to rise. The GDX is also trying to close the week above its 200-day moving average and strong resistance at $23 on the back of a tame U.S. inflation report
Three Month Gold Consolidation in Jeopardy
May 11, 2018
As a possible near-term scenario mentioned in this column last week, the gold price has indeed been sold down to the $1300 level this week while the surging U.S. dollar has reached the 92 region on the Cash Settle Index. Although the GDX has done a yoeman job of keeping one step ahead of both gold and U.S. equities since early...
Gold Stocks Continue to Outperform the Precious Metals
May 4, 2018
Gold prices have remained under pressure in recent days despite a growing laundry list of concerns, from falling equities and rising treasury yields to continued geopolitical worries. To the frustration of many, gold has been unable to break out of its nearly 4-month consolidation between $1300 to $1365 but the miners have been quietly outperforming during the past two months...
Silver Short Squeeze Unable to Ignite the Gold Sector...Yet
April 27, 2018
In the early hours on Wednesday, I alerted readers to a short squeeze which was beginning to take place in the silver market. Silver rallies are typically an inflation play, so the shorts began to cover when the CRB Index began to rally towards its January high.
Gold Stocks Have Been Quietly Bottoming
April 18, 2018
Based on the trading levels and decreasing volume in the GDX over the past 18 months, the precious metal miner sector has been drifting listlessly sideways and totally devoid of excitement. Gold stock volatility levels are dropping down to unsustainably low values and periods of low volatility lead to sharp moves.
The Bullish Silver CoT Report and Gold/Silver Ratio
April 13, 2018
The Commitments of Traders (CoT) report provides a snapshot of futures positions held by both large and small commercial hedgers and speculators, showing what positions big money traders are taking in a number of financial and commodity markets. This report, released each Friday by the CFTC at 3:30pm EST, allows the small...
Miner Merger Monday Followed by FOMC Fun Day
April 6, 2018
When I opened my inbox on Monday, I was happy to see the news of three miner take-over deals which could possibly be the beginning of more to come in this undervalued sector. It is no secret to sector professionals in the mining space that gold production has peaked and global miners have been high-grading, while running out of...
Never Sell a Dull Market...All Eyes on the FOMC Next Week
March 23, 2018
When I first discovered the mining space over fifteen years ago, I became mesmerized by the extreme volatility of the junior miners. After the meteoric rise of the Nasdaq into the turn of the century had ended, the junior resource penny stocks became exciting again and lured many momentum junkies into its lair.
PDAC Attendees Much More Cautious This Year
March 16, 2018
Earlier this week, I attended the annual Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference in Toronto. It is the premier destination for mining companies to mingle with suppliers, customers, potential investors, consultants, and analysts...
New Fed Chair Prematurely Ushers in the PDAC Curse
March 9, 2018
Next week, the annual Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention in Toronto will be attended by over 25,000 people from 130 countries, who will be visiting with nearly 1,000 exhibiting organizations. PDAC is the world’s biggest mining industry conference and is also a massive, non-stop, four-day party.
Gold Stocks Continue to Frustrate and Confuse Investors
March 2, 2018
Since early 2017, precious metal miners have not risen along with U.S. equites, crypto’s, and pot stocks. Yet when these high flyers were aggressively sold recently, gold stocks have been sold in unison with all three. As I type this missive, the gold price is trading just $45 from a major break-out of a nearly five-year base.
Precious Metal Stocks Continue to Lag Gold
February 16, 2018
Since the beginning of last year, precious metal stocks have been badly lagging the gold price. At the beginning of 2017, gold was trading well below $1175, while the GDX was at roughly the same level it is trading today with bullion firmly above $1300.
Gold Poised to Continue Higher into Chinese New Year
February 9, 2018
With some profit taking on tap when gold’s 6-week rally paused for a bit last week, the GDX has been sold down to strong support at the $23 level. The major miner ETF move up from its mid-December low was stopped cold just before it could reach long-term resistance at the $25 region, when it had a strong volume intra-day reversal...
Gold Sector Pops During Conference Week in Vancouver
February 2, 2018
Like most American males, I enjoy NFL Playoff football and have been an avid New England Patriots fan since I was a kid. Weather you love them or hate them, they have provided a very well-played AFC Championship game the past seven consecutive seasons.
Gold Rally Pauses at the Trump/Modi Highs
January 26, 2018
After rising five consecutive weeks, gold has paused at the $1340 level, which is the level bullion reached just after Donald Trump was declared the 45th President of the United States on November 8th, 2016. However, this shocking and gold bullish news was immediately “trumped” by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi...
Quality Junior Miner Trains are Leaving the Station
January 19, 2018
With gold being up over 13% while the GDX was up just a paltry 7% in 2017, I strongly believe a major mean-reversion catch-up rally is in the process of unfolding in the miners. Historically, the GDX would have leveraged the 13% gain in gold last year by 2x to 3x for solid annual gains of at least 25% to 35%.
Everything & Gold Will Rise in 2018, Except Bitcoin - Expert
January 5, 2018
Known as a fan favorite, the Expert Series brings together well-known investors and Kitco regulars to find out where they will be putting their money in 2018. This time, we asked investor David Erfle how he would invest $100,000 in the mining sector this year. He also shared some investments he would avoid, including bitcoin.