The underwhelming Non-Farms Payroll (NFP) release last Friday, coupled with a weakening stock market, has the street expecting the Fed will turn cautious next week and slow the pace of rate hikes in 2019. Although the November jobs report was strong enough to keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates again.

You would be hard pressed to find a shell-shocked gold stock investor who would like nothing more than the answer to this question. I will present a strong argument for both outcomes below, so that you, dear reader, can decide for yourself which way the gold complex may imminently break.

The U.S. Midterm Election ending without any surprises, and had stock prices soaring higher on Wednesday, while gold was essentially unchanged. With equities being bid higher, gold is losing an important safety-related support with the return of “risk-on” among equity investors.

Last week, two of Canada’s largest gold miners reported losses for the third quarter, continuing a disappointing run that has seen the industry struggle to attract investors. Barrick Gold (ABX) reported a $412m net loss due to a $405m impairment on its Lagunas Norte project in Peru, while Goldcorp (GG) swung to a $101m loss from a net profit of $111m a year earlier. 

When gold’s latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report was released last Friday, we learned speculators boosted their net-short position in bullion futures and options to the largest level since at least 2006 in the week ended Oct. 9th. During the previous session on October 11th, gold posted the biggest...

The imminent short squeeze gold bulls had been waiting for since late July, was triggered yesterday after U.S. equities were down over three percent the previous session. Just after the London Metals Exchange (LME) opened yesterday morning, gold spec shorts slowly began to cover as Dow Futures were showing more weakness before the opening bell.

On September 30th, we had an announcement of a second miner merger proposal after the recently concluded Denver Gold Forum. North and Central American focused silver miner/developer Americas Silver (USAS) announced that it has agreed to acquire Nevada-focused gold developer Pershing Gold (PGLC)...

On Sunday evening, Global miners Barrick Gold (ABX) and Randgold Resources (GOLD) announced they have agreed to merge in an all share, no premium transaction which will solidify Barrick as the world’s largest gold company by production.

Although 2018 has been a rough year for junior resource equity speculators, there has been some positive M&A activity in the complex over the past few months. Most notably, we have seen a number of larger acquisitions including South32's US$1.3B deal for Arizona Mining, Orion's C$537M bid for Dalradian Resources...

Since Vanguard announced a major restructuring of its Vanguard Precious Metal and Mining Fund (VGPMX) on July 27th, the sell-off in the GDX has increased much more than the selling in gold. The fund’s investment strategy is shifting from investing 80% in mining companies and 20% directly in precious metals...

Since late July, there has been a growing chorus of gold sector analysts calling for an imminent upside explosion in the miners based generally on the highly publicized and extreme managed money short position in gold futures. Although I happen to agree this overly large speculator short position is a time bomb which can eventually propel...

Just before the minutes to the previously concluded Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on August 1st were released this Wednesday, gold was in the process of back-testing the $1200 region in the December contract.

The “summer doldrums” have been particularly cruel to gold bulls this year with safe haven capital continuing to rush into the U.S. dollar, as opposed to the traditional safe haven of gold. There has also been speculation that Turkey may be having to sell gold recently due to their current severe financial crisis...

On July 19th, while gold was selling down toward the $1200 region, President Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve’s current policy to continue raising interest rates. Gold immediately rose $10, while the over-bought U.S. dollar made an intra-day reversal from its highest point reached since a strong move higher began in mid-April.

In Wednesday’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting speech, the Federal Reserve took a slightly more hawkish policy tone in signaling two more rate hikes by year-end. However, the gold complex chose to focus on the Fed’s rather tepid view of inflation as Fed Chair Jerome Powell pledged to keep rates low enough to bolster the...

Since gold bottomed at the $1050 region in late 2015 many analysts, myself included, have been anticipating a breakout above strong resistance at the $1375 level. However, this past April the yellow metal failed for the third time at this area and has now broken down with a monthly basis close below critical support at $1260 on June

I have just returned from the annual Yukon Mining Alliance (YMA) Investment & Media Tour with a deeper understanding of the geologic history in the westernmost of Canada's three federal territories. Each year the YMA invites a select group of both industry professionals and resource investors on a 6-day whirlwind tour of numerous mine site camps throughout the region.

Since last Sunday afternoon, while investors continue to sell most of their junior resource stock holdings in panic fashion, there have been three high-profile merger/acquisitions announced in the complex. What is most encouraging is the fact that two of these deals were large premium, all-cash offers for juniors who have been...

These are the words of Rick Rule, who is one of the most successful resource stock speculators of our time. Mr. Rule’s famous quote is being put to the test while we approach yet another gold sensitive Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week.

In this column a few weeks ago, I mentioned gold may continue to be under pressure until we see the rising U.S. dollar reach a technical target of 95 on the cash-settled index and I had assumed at the time, gold would be below $1280 when it was reached. 

The Dovish Fed minutes on Wednesday, coupled with President Donald Trump cancelling his much-anticipated historic meeting with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un yesterday, has sent gold back above the $1300 level. However, with gold becoming over-sold when hitting support near $1280 earlier this week, the inevitable bounce...

Just two hours before the Cambridge House International Mining Investment Conference began in Vancouver on Tuesday, the gold price broke critical support at $1300. After trying repeatedly for three months, the safe-haven currency had been unable to break out above multi-year resistance at $1375.

Despite the relentless rise of the U.S. dollar during the past four weeks, the gold price has managed to hold critical support at the $1300 level due mostly to crude oil continuing to rise. The GDX is also trying to close the week above its 200-day moving average and strong resistance at $23 on the back of a tame U.S. inflation report

As a possible near-term scenario mentioned in this column last week, the gold price has indeed been sold down to the $1300 level this week while the surging U.S. dollar has reached the 92 region on the Cash Settle Index. Although the GDX has done a yoeman job of keeping one step ahead of both gold and U.S. equities since early...

Gold prices have remained under pressure in recent days despite a growing laundry list of concerns, from falling equities and rising treasury yields to continued geopolitical worries. To the frustration of many, gold has been unable to break out of its nearly 4-month consolidation between $1300 to $1365 but the miners have been quietly outperforming during the past two months...

In the early hours on Wednesday, I alerted readers to a short squeeze which was beginning to take place in the silver market. Silver rallies are typically an inflation play, so the shorts began to cover when the CRB Index began to rally towards its January high.

Based on the trading levels and decreasing volume in the GDX over the past 18 months, the precious metal miner sector has been drifting listlessly sideways and totally devoid of excitement. Gold stock volatility levels are dropping down to unsustainably low values and periods of low volatility lead to sharp moves. 

The Commitments of Traders (CoT) report provides a snapshot of futures positions held by both large and small commercial hedgers and speculators, showing what positions big money traders are taking in a number of financial and commodity markets. This report, released each Friday by the CFTC at 3:30pm EST, allows the small...

When I opened my inbox on Monday, I was happy to see the news of three miner take-over deals which could possibly be the beginning of more to come in this undervalued sector. It is no secret to sector professionals in the mining space that gold production has peaked and global miners have been high-grading, while running out of...

When I first discovered the mining space over fifteen years ago, I became mesmerized by the extreme volatility of the junior miners. After the meteoric rise of the Nasdaq into the turn of the century had ended, the junior resource penny stocks became exciting again and lured many momentum junkies into its lair.