EDITORIALS IN 2019
Miner M&A Monday's big return to the gold space
December 20, 2019
Speculation about asset divestitures among global miners after recent M&A deals began to come to fruition on Monday, November 17th, when Barrick Gold (GOLD) sold its 50% stake in the Kalgoorlie Super Pit gold mine to Saracen Mineral Holdings for $750 million. Trendsetter and high-profile Barrick CEO Mark Bristow has been quite...
‘Tis the Junior Gold Stock Shopping Season
December 6, 2019
It seems as though frustrated junior speculators are clicking sell buttons for tax-loss earlier each year. And despite the gold price remaining well above its breakout region of $1375 to $1400, even more so in 2019. A combination of a Fed rate cut pause, tax-loss selling, and expectations of an imminent “Phase One” trade...
Risk-on sentiment forces gold below late September lows
November 17, 2019
With recent news reports of the U.S. and China edging closer to a “Phase One” trade deal, risk-on sentiment enveloped the global equity markets this week that forced December Gold to break strong support at $1480. The safe-haven metal came under significant technical selling pressure beginning on Tuesday, when it suddenly went...
Gold remains in a bullish flag heading into fed week
November 8, 2019
Pressure is building up in the gold price, which has been contained in a bullish 8-week symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern heading into Fed week. While the overall trend has been lower, price has largely chopped sideways after the metal became extreme overbought in August. Demand for bullion has softened amid optimism...
Green shoots in the gold complex
October 25, 2019
As expected in this column two weeks ago, the healthy pullback in the gold complex has continued after the safe-haven metal reached a key zone of long-term resistance at the $1550 region seven weeks ago. This price level is very significant, due to being critical support dating back to the previous gold bull run which ended in late 2011...
Miners lagging gold portends more weakness ahead
October 18. 2019
As Q3 came to a close on Monday, profit taking and quarter end book squaring by fund managers in the gold space was largely responsible for the safe-haven metal closing below strong support at $1480 on a quarterly basis. With Chinese buying being off market for its Golden Week National Holiday this week, sell stops being hit
Three small-cap junior miners with mid-tier potential
October 4, 2019
As expected in this column last week, December Gold is seeing some profit taking and quarter end book squaring by fund managers heading into Q4. You may wish to consider taking advantage of this weakness to begin scaling into a basket of small-cap growth-oriented producers (GOP’s) before Q3 earnings season begins in late October.
Gold remains above $1500 after Fed's 'hawkish rate cut'
September 27, 2019
On Sunday evening, Global miners Barrick Gold (ABX) and Randgold Resources (GOLD) announced they have agreed to merge in an all share, no premium transaction which will solidify Barrick as the world’s largest gold company by production.
Opportunity in precious metal junior take-over candidates
September 20, 2019
Last week in this column, I mentioned the likelihood of a correction in the precious metals complex continuing this week. After testing overhead resistance levels during an extreme overbought situation in the sector, we witnessed a sharp decline in both gold and silver on Thursday, which may usher in a healthy three to six-week correction phase.
Silver technically joins gold in a new bull market
September 6, 2019
With December Gold continuing to consolidate recent gains above $1500, investors have begun to move quickly into the cheaper safe-haven option of silver which has surged 12% this month and touched an over two-year high of $18.76 on Thursday.
December gold continues to consolidate above $1500
August 30, 2019
With market volatility increasing and the global economy flashing key warning signs of an impending recession, overbought December Gold continues to consolidate recent gains in both price and time above $1500. Although the gold complex is showing signs of distribution taking place after becoming extreme overbought last week,...
Miners are Hinting Gold May See a Correction Soon
August 23, 2019
To begin this week, the GDX closed lower on Monday with gold futures rallying to fresh highs. The following day, December Gold nearly reached $1550 before making a sharp $55 intraday reversal when President Trump tweeted delaying the new tariffs on a large batch of Chinese imports.
Silver on Pace to Join Gold in a New Bull Market
August 16, 2019
The “summer doldrums” have been particularly cruel to gold bulls this year with safe haven capital continuing to rush into the U.S. dollar, as opposed to the traditional safe haven of gold. There has also been speculation that Turkey may be having to sell gold recently due to their current severe financial crisis...
Mr. Gold's Wild Ride
August 19, 2019
Immediately after making a six-year monthly high close this week on the Comex, gold sector traders began to “sell the news” of the highly anticipated and mostly expected Fed rate cut decision on Wednesday afternoon. Once the 25bps rate cut was announced, computer algorithm-based trades began to react to the words of Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech and the action became volatile.
Gold and Silver Shine During the Race to Debase
August 2, 2019
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's neutral tone yesterday influenced some normal profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders in overbought August Gold. In a precursor to a rate cut, the ECB said it saw rates at present or lower levels through mid-2020, a subtle change to its previous pledge to keep rates...
Silver Joins the Miners in Leading Gold Higher
July 26, 2019
Silver has a long history as being one of the most volatile metals when the price starts moving quickly on the up, or the downside. The potential for significant percentage gains causes speculators to flock to this tiny sector once major up-legs have begun.
Area Play: The Val d’Or, Quebec Camp in Canada is Heating Up
July 19, 2019
In the early 20th century, the discovery of the Cadillac Fault ushered in the Abitibi-Témiscamingue Gold Rush and the geological anomaly continues to have a major impact on Quebec’s mining history. The massive fault is roughly 160 kilometers long and extends from the town of Val d’Or, in Quebec, to Kirkland Lake, in Ontario
The Macro Backdrop Has Moved Convincingly in Gold’s Favor
July 12, 2019
While equities continue to soar against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors preparing to cut already low interest rates, the gold complex has clearly broken out of a nearly six-year base right along with them. But before the Fed announced “uncertainty” about the economy at the June FOMC meeting, rates were already...
Hints of More Monetary Stimulus and Middle East Fears Goose Gold
July 5, 2019
Although not a surprise to readers of this column, long suffering gold bulls are finally being rewarded this week as the safe-haven metal has broken out well above five-year overhead resistance at $1375. The move has caught many investors off guard while on vacation, as market summers have long been bullion’s weakest time of the year
Gold Complex Poised to Break Out Led by Three White Soldiers
June 14, 2019
During the last two market sessions in May, this bullish technical pattern began to form on all of the most widely followed gold sector ETF’s and Indices. The SPDR Gold Shares Fund (GLD) and both Van Eck Gold Miner Funds (GDX, GDXJ), along with the HUI & XAU gold indices, began to move sharply higher from a month-long accumulative base.
A Golden Opportunity in Gold Stocks is Upon Us
June 7, 2019
As concerns over the impact of trade wars on global growth have roiled markets, stock indexes have been experiencing their most turbulent month of the year so far. Falling stocks, combined with the surprising drop in global bond yields, are continuing to make gold look more attractive while it simmers below $1300.
M&A Heats Up - Here are a Few More Takeover Candidates
May 31, 2019
Earlier this week, ASX-listed St Barbara Ltd. announced it was buying smaller Canadian rival Atlantic Gold Corp (AGB.V) for C$802 million, in the latest of several mergers and acquisitions targeting mostly the gold sector taking place since mid-2018. The all-cash deal represents an attractive acquisition cost per ounce of reserves of...
Miners Lead Gold Lower After Fed Dampens Rate Cut Hopes
May 10, 2019
The gold complex was hit hard on Wednesday and selling continued yesterday, while comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell appeared to dampen hopes the central bank could move later this year to cut interest rates. In its policy announcement, the Fed held rates steady as expected and struck a cautious tone on inflation.
Gold Firms at Key Support Heading into FOMC Meeting Next Week
May 3, 2019
When considering all-time highs being made in U.S. big board indices, coupled with a breakout in the U.S. dollar that is now trading at two-year highs, the resilience of June Gold holding the key support region at $1275 has been impressive. A combination of a strong dollar and declining risk aversion, due to the continued rise of equities, has been the main factors keeping pressure on the gold price.
Gold Stock Consolidation Continues in a Tight Range
April 26, 2019
The brief short covering respite in the safe haven metal this week reversed quickly after yesterday’s U.S. Labor Department report said its Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.6% in March, following February’s increase 0.1%. The data was significantly stronger than expected with economists’ forecasting an increase of...
Has a False Move Lower in Gold Just Begun?
April 12, 2019
As we head into a weekly/monthly/quarterly close later today, the distortion of the yield curve in the U.S treasury market has safe-haven capital fleeing into the U.S dollar over gold. In a recent blog post, global macro economist Martin Armstrong mentioned vast bids for U.S. 90-day T-Bills from around the world having no offers, as emerging markets come under a financial crisis, in part, instigated by Turkey.
The Fed Officially Joins Loose Global Monetary Policy Posture
March 29, 2019
Earlier this week, the market was surprised by an overtly dovish FOMC monetary policy statement by Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell. Although the U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged with its current range between 2.25% and 2.50%, the Fed dramatically downgraded its expected rate path to signal that no rate hikes are likely to take place in 2019.
A Few Possible Junior Gold Stock Pitfalls on the Horizon
March 22, 2019
The description of the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF states the fund as being “intended to track the overall performance of small-capitalization companies that are primarily involved in the mining of gold and/or silver”. What this description of GDXJ does not tell you is the fact that they have changed the definition of what is a small-cap junior mining company.
The PDAC Smack in Gold and More Global Stimulus
March 15, 2019
Each year, during the first week of March, investors, analysts, mining executives, prospectors, geologists, government officials, and students from 135 countries descend upon the Metro Toronto Convention Centre to attend the world’s largest mining convention. Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) is the...
Silver Stocks Remain Buoyant as Merger Mania Heats Up
March 8, 2019
The silver space has been beaten down for so long, most speculators who have attempted to bottom fish this tiny sector have given up and moved on. After silver prices crashed and stayed low for what seems like a decade, the sector has been basically left for dead. The current silver bear market began after a speculative blow-off top...
Is the Recent Rise in Gold Predicting Coming Stagflation?
March 1, 2019
The term "stagflation" was first used in the United Kingdom by politician Iain Macleod in the 1960’s, while he was speaking in the House of Commons. At the time, MacLeod was speaking about inflation on one side and stagnation on the other, calling it a "stagnation situation."
Silver to Shine in 2019: Three Silver Juniors to Consider
February 22, 2019
Historically, the gold trend in either direction has driven the silver market. Investors typically ignore this tiny sector until gold has rallied long and high enough to convince them its upside momentum is sustainable. Since the price of silver peaked at nearly $50 per ounce in early 2011, this precious metal with a strong industrial component has continued to lag the gold price.
A Few Bullish Undertones as Gold Corrects Recent Gains
February 15, 2019
The continued strength in gold this year alongside the strong bounce in the stock market has been impressive. While global equities have taken investors on a roller coaster ride since late 2018, the gold price has gained 10% from its August 2018 lows with hardly a pullback along the way. With this move becoming long in the tooth in both...
Gold Remains in a Tight Range While M&A Rumors Persist
February 1, 2019
With the global miner merger rumors continuing to circulate the conference halls in Vancouver this week, February Gold has remained firmly above $1280. After Newmont Mining Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp. forged mega deals that will extend their lead over South African miner AngloGold, Bloomberg reported late last week that Gold Fields...
Global Miner Consolidation Continues Along with Gold
January 25, 2019
Before the ink had much time to dry on the finalized Barrick-Randgold deal, Newmont Mining Corp. announced it was buying Goldcorp, Inc. on Monday for $10 billion to create a gold producer that will top Barrick’s now $24 billon market cap once completed. The agreement will combine two gold industry leaders into Newmont Goldcorp, to create...
Ten Reasons Why Gold Will Remain Above $1250 in 2019
January 18, 2019
Gold and its miners have been attracting more attention since U.S. stocks started falling during the fourth quarter and interest rates began dropping. Bullion has gained 10% since its low in August and the GDX has risen over 20% since making its low in early September. The gold juniors have been playing catch-up after being sold for tax-loss...
Gold Continues to Climb a Wall of Worry into 2019
January 11, 2019
Gold prices hit their highest price in six-and-a-half months on Thursday, as volatile equity markets on the back of weak US data heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, propelling the safe-haven metal towards a potential third straight weekly gain. The equity sell-off is beginning to pose a systemic risk, which has investors...
Junior Gold Stocks - The Best Deep-Value Play for 2019
January 4, 2019
Equity investors who have grown accustomed to a “Santa Clause Rally” in late Q4, have instead received a lump of coal from Mr. Market this year. It appears as though a few big money traders and fund managers, who are in the process of leaving their respective desks for the holidays, are making sure to have some golden insurance before squaring their books for year-end.