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EDITORIALS IN 2020

The gold chop continues into a series of key events next week

December 18, 2020

Although the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday disappointed gold investors looking for a larger stimulus boost, the ECB expanded its debt purchase program and agreed to provide banks with ever more ultra-cheap liquidity, as long as they keep passing the cash onto companies.

Everyone back in the pool at the gold bottomz inn

December 11, 2020

Precious metals set all-time price records in 2020, with gold exceeding the $2,000 mark and silver nearly touching the $30 level, but prices have been mired in a healthy consolidation of over-sized gains for the past four months. The correction that began in early August shaved as much as 15% off gold's peak into the end of November, toppling the precious metal from an all-time high of $2,089 all the way down to the $1,770 level on Monday.

During U.S. election chaos, central banks remain accommodative

November 6, 2020

With investors pricing in a likely Joe Biden presidency to the tune of buying most everything in sight, the Bank of England expanded its bond-buying program this week and the Federal Reserve lobbied for further monetary and fiscal support being required to keep the world’s largest economy from going into recession.

Miners are leading gold lower into the U.S.election...again

November 6, 2020

Now that the marketplace has officially been denied fiscal stimulus until after the U.S. election by President Donald Trump on Tuesday, along with multiple European governments announcing more COVID-19 related lockdowns, both equities and gold are being sold to build up cash.

Governments are moving towards digital currencies - got gold?

October 30. 2020

The debate on central bank digital currencies (CBDC’s) has been heating up since the COVID-19 crisis began. The reference to a ‘digital dollar’ in an early draft of a U. S. legislation for the first $2 trillion financial stimulus package announced in March, along with the subsequent ‘Banking For All Act’ bill put forth by Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), has fueled this debate.

The calls for gold miners to replace reserves are getting louder

October 23, 2020

With the gold price having closed above $1800 over the past few quarters, M&A activity has been quiet despite miners generating billions of free cash flow. After a period of impairments, write-downs, and value destruction following the M&A frenzy of the last gold price boom that ended in 2011, global miners have shifted away from growth strategies to margin preservation.

Silver stocks showing relative strength during miner consolidation

October 9, 2020

Silver investors have been taken on a rollercoaster ride this year, as the highly volatile metal has recently corrected by almost $8, or 36% since peaking in early August. The drop to just below $22 after gaining over $19 from a spike low below $12 has brought the silver price back to less than half its all-time high.

Gold stop-run below $1920 extends miner consolidation

October 2, 2020

Unprecedented global stimulus measures, negative real rates, and a weakening dollar pushed gold futures to a record high of $2,089 per ounce in early August. After printing a quarterly basis close above $1800 for the first time in its history in Q2 2020, the safe-haven metal blew past the former all-time high of $1920 seen back in 2011.

3 junior gold stocks to consider before M&A activity increases

September 25, 2020

While the healthy consolidation of recent out-sized gains in the gold space continues, this is a great time to consider accumulating a basket of junior developers controlling large projects being de-risked into the finance stage. With the gold price likely in the process of creating a new floor above $1800, it’s only a matter of when, not if, global producers begin concentrating on replacing depleting reserves.

Juniors showing relative strength during miner consolidation

September 11, 2020

Gold prices came into the month of August with a full head of steam, setting a fresh all-time-high at $2089 on August 6th. But, that first week didn’t close with strength and produced a bearish engulfing candlestick after the sector was extreme overbought for 15 consecutive trading sessions.

Gold flash crash retests its former all-time high

August 28, 2020

Since my last column two weeks ago, gold for immediate delivery hit a high of $2,089 per troy ounce with silver peaking just below $30.00. Last Friday, the safe-haven metal hit a daily RSI above 90, then closed the week with an outside reversal to the downside, warning that a further decline this week was probable.

Gold futures in blue sky territory as china rolls out the e-RMB

August 14, 2020

With gold futures ripping through its final resistance level at the $1921 all-time high earlier this week, everyone that has purchased an ounce of gold at any time in history is “in the money”, as the safe-haven metal is now trading in blue-sky territory. In overseas trading on Tuesday evening, December Gold nearly touched the $2000 per ounce mark in Hong Kong before reversing strongly from this psychologically important level.

Focusing on the Big Picture with Miners Due to Consolidate Gains

July 31, 2020

Over the past few weeks, most precious metals sector analysts have been repeating ad nauseum that it was only a matter of time until the gold price reached all-time highs at the $1900 level first seen nearly nine years ago. Naturally, this mostly foregone conclusion had set up a proverbial “buy the news and sell the fact” situation in the mining sector.

Gold futures are attempting to build a floor at $1800

July 24, 2020

With the gold price having closed above $1800 in Q2, the safe-haven metal is attempting to build a strong floor at this significant price point before resuming its climb to all-time highs. Former overhead resistance at $1800 was a strong multi-year ceiling and since we have not seen these gold prices in nine years, temporary consolidation around this important level is to be expected. 

Focusing on the Big Picture with Miners Due to Consolidate Gains

July 31, 2020

Over the past few weeks, most precious metals sector analysts have been repeating ad nauseum that it was only a matter of time until the gold price reached all-time highs at the $1900 level first seen nearly nine years ago. Naturally, this mostly foregone conclusion had set up a proverbial “buy the news and sell the fact” situation in the mining sector.

Gold futures are attempting to build a floor at $1800

July 24, 2020

With the gold price having closed above $1800 in Q2, the safe-haven metal is attempting to build a strong floor at this significant price point before resuming its climb to all-time highs. Former overhead resistance at $1800 was a strong multi-year ceiling and since we have not seen these gold prices in nine years, temporary consolidation around this important level is to be expected. 

Junior gold stocks explode after gold closes Q2 above $1800

July 17, 2020

In my last column of H1 2020, I was expecting a Gold Futures Q2 close above $1800. Although just barely, Mr. Market delivered as August Gold closed at $1800.50 on June 30th. In fact, gold saw its highest quarterly basis close in history and best quarterly performance in more than four years.

Looking for a gold quarterly close above $1800 next week

July 10, 2020

After trading sideways since early April, gold appears ready to break out above multi-year resistance at $1800 on a quarterly basis next week. The safe-haven metal closed at an 8-year high on Tuesday and could make a run to test its all-time highs as early as this summer. 

Chinese gold miners continue junior shopping spree

June 25, 2020

As the 10-week sideways consolidation continues to build a floor in the gold price just below multi-year resistance at $1800, Chinese global gold miners are making all-cash offers for small-cap juniors at large premiums. This recent wave of Chinese deals for junior firms has come while government lock-downs are systematically being lifted in select mining jurisdictions.

The road to stagflation is being paved with gold

June 19, 2020

The term "stagflation" was first used in the United Kingdom by politician Iain Macleod in the 1960’s, while he was speaking in the House of Commons. At the time, MacLeod was talking about inflation on one side and stagnation on the other, calling it a "stagnation situation."

Bullish miner rotation in play as GDX tests its breakout level

June 12, 2020

As I type this missive, August Gold is being sold down towards support at $1675 after the U.S. Non-Farms Payrolls (NFP) report released this morning showed 2.5 million jobs were created in May. According to consensus forecasts, the data significantly beat expectations as economists were expecting to see job losses of around 7.75 million workers.

Gold is consolidating recent gains before tackling $1800

June 5, 2020

After reaching a high of $1788 in early April, the gold price has been consolidating recent gains while attempting to build a new floor above $1675 per ounce. Although the safe-haven metal will likely close the month above $1700 later today, gold futures have been trading within a $100 range between $1675 and $1775 for the past eight weeks.

Old Turkey says be right and sit tight with gold stocks

May 29, 2020

When I first began to invest in the stock market over 20 years ago, I was determined to become the best investor possible. I watched CNBC daily, read Barron’s and countless other mainstream paraphernalia…….and promptly lost over 50% of my investment capital in just two years.

Silver finally decides to join the gold party

May 22, 2020

With the gold price breaking out of its month-long symmetrical triangle this week, silver has decided to join the gold party. As mentioned in this column last week, silver equities had been telegraphing this move for the past month and the metal finally received the message this week.

While the gold price consolidates, silver begins to awaken

May 15, 2020

When I stumbled upon the precious metals sector in 2003, silver was stuck in a trading range below $5.00 per ounce, while the gold space was zooming higher. The incredible gains in gold stocks, which began just after the turn of the century, had caught my eye and I became fascinated with the mining sector.

Global central bankers add more stimulus to gold miner bull

May 08, 2020

Shares of the global gold miner fund GDX rallied 40% in April as the coronavirus crisis rocked global markets and investors raced to buy safe-haven assets. While investors debate whether the lasting effect of the Covid-19 virus will be deflationary or inflationary, gold has emerged as the safe asset of choice after the dash to cash subsided in mid-March.

It's the junior's time to shine after major miner breakout

May 1, 2020

As mentioned likely in this column last week, the GDX has broken out of a multi-year base, while the price of gold continues to rise and is nearing another seven-year high. Once the “bear trap” set last month quickly forced most players out of the precious metals complex, the global miner ETF has broken the 7-year Maginot Line of

Miners on the verge of breaking out of a multi-year base...again

May 24, 2020

Heading into 2020, as the price of gold was seemingly in the process of creating a new floor at $1550, I was expecting a break-out in the GDX above the $31-$32 level from a nearly 7-year base. Both the miners and silver were leading the safe-haven metal into the new year.

Modern monetary theories fuel gold above $1700

April 17, 2020

Now that the global government response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been to shut down the global economy, the central bank of the world’s reserve currency has dived head first into the ocean of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) to solve all our financial problems. This economic theory is the same old incantation on how to prosper with other people’s money.

Direxion fund ETF discrepancies and their effects on gold stocks

April 9, 2020

Since the collective government response to prospective dangers of the COVID-19 coronavirus has been to shut down the global economy, the volatility in most everything traded has been immense. The trading atmosphere during the resulting financial crisis has, at times, been especially cruel to investors who have placed short-term...

The miner bear trap for the ages

April 3, 2020

For the past week, there has been a huge war being waged in the marketplace. The current deflationary forces are battling the coming inflation central banks are bringing into the system with unprecedented reflationary measures. This tug of war has gold trading all over the place, while refineries are being shut down and both the COMEX & LME have no live trading pits, just computer trading.

Cash is king and gold is sold as miners shut down operations

March 27, 2020

Panic selling on Wall Street went across the board this week, with the Dow Jones Index losing around 6% and taking the index below 20,000. The Dow has now lost roughly one-third of its value since the market high in mid-February, while the combined western government response to the COVID-19 virus has resulted in a financial market meltdown of epic proportions.

Capitulation selling in miners as trump fuels the helicopters

March 20, 2020

With the stock market crashing this week, panic selling has created a flight to cash, margin calls, and unusual derivatives trading. But safe- haven assets such as precious metals and their miners have fallen in chaotic fashion due to mass deleveraging, which is creating an attractive buying opportunity in the precious metals complex for longer term contrarian speculators.

Gold's safe-haven bids return during stunning action in bonds

March 13, 2020

With the Dow rising or falling in 1,000-point daily increments again this week, the Gold/Dow ratio is breaking out of a 2-year inverse head & shoulders bottoming pattern. This means that generalist investors are beginning to sell equities and parking some of the proceeds into the safe-haven metal. We are witnessing record-setting market

Margin call selling has gold stock breakout on hold

March 6, 2020

With the GDX set to break out of a 7-year base coming into the week, miner frustration has continued for gold bulls with the safe-haven metal remaining above $1600. As mentioned in this column last week, the global miner ETF was technically set to break out of a 3-year cup & handle pattern while gold was trading at 7-year highs.

Gold's perfect storm is upon us

February 28, 2020

There is an old saying on Wall Street that the market is driven by just two emotions: fear and greed. While general equity investment decisions are driven by fear to the downside and greed (the current market emotion) to the upside, the gold price has the ability to move strongly to the upside by either emotion.

Dovish fed boosts gold but miners remain weak

February 7, 2020

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve voted to maintain the benchmark interest rate between 1.5% to 1.75% for the second consecutive meeting. The central bank repeated its prior view that the U.S. is growing at a “moderate rate” and also noted that inflation remains below their 2% target, along with allowing inflation to exceed the 2% level if need be.

GDX and silver relative weakness hinting gold may need a rest

January 31, 2020

Although the rapid spread, along with the equally rapid international response, to the coronavirus from its epicenter in China has left markets on edge, weakness continues to be bought in equities. The price of gold has also responded to the upside and remains well bid above multi-year support at the $1550 level.

Gold Holding Above $1550 into Central Bank Confab’s Next Week

January 24, 2020

Despite missile strikes, oil market turmoil, along with ongoing impeachment proceedings, major U.S. stock market indices continue to make all-time highs as waves of liquidity continue to wash traders cares away. After what amounted to mere half-day sell-offs of profit taking, it seems nothing can get in the way of the bull...

Gold surges above $1600 but leaves the miners behind

January 17, 2020

When I began to invest heavily into the junior resource equity space just after the turn of the century, it did not take me very long to figure out that a surging gold price due to a geopolitical event rarely benefited the miners. When speculating in precious metals stocks, a slow steady climb in the metals due to perceived global central bank...

Gold Miners on the Verge of Breaking Out of a Multi-Year Base

January 3, 2020

Although the new year began with the continuation of the melt-up in U.S. equities, gold has also managed to remain rallying alongside record-high equity markets into 2020 on technical based buying. The safe-haven metal is rising towards multi-year resistance at $1550 on news of another U.S. airstrike in the Middle East.

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